Market Overview

What if the inflation problem has not actually been effectively addressed? It could have important implications for not only monetary but fiscal policy in the near future. This may be one reason...

This weekend, we will examine some of the long-term market cycles across various assets to help set the stage for the coming months as we begin to look toward 2025. All charts below come from...

It’s difficult to count the number of mainstream macro theories that we’ve debunked over the past few years. Many long-used relationships and correlations have been upended by record monetary and...

Donald Trump won the election by a clearer and wider margin than what was expected, and the Republicans gained control of the Senate. In the short-term, we believe this outcome is likely to be...

The latest UK government budget, which saw big tax rises but even bigger spending increases projected for 2025-26, has forced markets to rethink Bank of England expectations. Rates are expected to...

The Fed cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 25bps yesterday as widely expected. We expected it as well, though we still believe that the now 75bps cut in the FFR since September 18 is too much, too...

Elections have consequences and so Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th president will surely change the calculus. The policy differences between the Republican president-elect and...

The Federal Reserve's November policy meeting is set to be a pivotal moment for markets. While investors are almost certain of a 25bps rate cut, the Fed’s guidance will be closely watched,...

As I have been writing publicly for over 13 years, and have been running my services for and teaching trading and investing to thousands of retail customers and money manager clients for the same, I...

U.S. Treasury yields have become a critical indicator for retail investors as markets navigate shifting monetary policy expectations and economic signals ahead of the hyped presidential election. The...

Trump vs Harris: Who's Better for Gold, Stocks and US Dollar?

In his 2022 Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa) shareholder letter, Warren Buffett wrote that in his 80 years of investing, he had “yet to see a time when it made sense to make a long-term bet against...

Some of our best friends are technicians. Ed was at Prudential Equity Group at the same time as Ralph Acampora, the renowned market historian and technical analyst. Ralph's analysis often confirmed...

Our time target for the bull market will be registered on election day. Of course, there must be a (+/-) tolerance built into the time target because who among us is a legitimate Swami, able to read...