Market Overview

In 2019, the Fed cut interest rates and restarted QE despite a healthy economy. Today, inflation is higher than the Fed’s target, economic growth is above historical trends, and financial...

Stocks fell sharply yesterday, ahead of Jay Powell’s testimony today. It would be great if Powell acknowledged how much financial conditions have eased and that easing conditions could undermine...

In late 2022, I often said that while I didn’t think it would be severe I figured we would have a recession in 2023 because we had never seen an energy spike at the same time that the Fed was...

Though the economy is stable and markets are bullish by definition of price trends, the underpinning is anything but healthy.The U.S. national debt is rising by $1 trillion about every 100 daysOf...

Despite a slight slowdown, the economy continues to thrive and the chances of a rate cut at the March 20 meeting stand at a minuscule 2%. In this piece, we will consider the recent statements from...

Bitcoin and gold were both top of mind at last week’s 2024 Investment U Conference in Ojai, California, which I had the privilege of presenting at. There was a rumor circulating that the Bitcoin...

In the podcast, we covered several global macro themes and investment opportunities.Macro is back, and it’s impacting markets everywhere you look. We discussed the chart above: it shows the...

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So, we are back to the argument about whether we have reached a new era of permanently higher growth and earnings, and because of productivity also a permanent state of steady disinflationary...

Stocks finished the day lower but managed to hold onto support, and it seems to suggest that today we are likely to see some kind of move.Which direction is tough to say, especially with the PCE...

Recent US recession forecasts look set to fail again for the first-quarter economic profile, based on the current lineup of Q1 GDP nowcasts.Output remains on track to slow in the first three months of...

By Benjamin SchroederRates are still looking to go higher near term. While supply has helped over the past few days, rates remain sensitive to the data. So far, pushing back the expectations for the...

Stocks were flat again yesterday as the events the rest of the week get a bit more interesting, with GDP revisions today, PCE on Thursday, and ISM on Friday.It seems clear that bond rates are waiting...

NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) reported financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2023 last week, and I’m still picking my jaw off the floor. The chipmaker handily beat Wall Street...