Market Overview

The April job report, a significant indicator of the U.S. labor market's health, revealed a cooling trend with slower job growth.The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April job report on...

Preliminary estimates of second-quarter US GDP activity suggest output may stabilize after two straight quarters of slower growth, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by...

The Fed held its policy meeting, leaving rates unchanged but slowing down quantitative tightening. Today's focus shifts to US labor data: strong figures could justify the Fed's hawkish stance of...

There is a popular meme that the government has an incentive to inflate, because the same debt is worth less in real terms at a higher price level. If inflation is high enough, then the government (it...

The Fed meetings seem to create more confusion than needed, but it is what is what it is. I know that even though I wrote yesterday that at 2:35 PM ET, it was possible that we saw the usual FOMC press...

Most of the major asset classes retreated in April. The overall losses mark the worst month for global markets so far in 2024, based on a set of ETFs.The upside outliers last month were limited to...

The S&P 500 was down about 1.6% heading into the FOMC meeting and Quarterly Refunding Announcement today. The VIX 1-Day was up 8.3 points to 18.10, which suggests much of the decline yesterday...

The value of modeling recession risk-based multiple indicators is a hardy perennial. The latest example comes by way of aggregating trends in the 50 US state economies for estimating the odds that an...

In case you missed it, a $5 trillion tax hike looms over American households and businesses in President Joe Biden’s latest budget proposal, which would include a 25% annual minimum tax on...

This will be one of the busier weeks of the year with earnings, the Fed, lots of data, and a Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement. There are many differing views on the QRA, and there is a good...

The Biggest MYTH of Trading is that more trading equals more money.Overtrading is one of the most dangerous trading behaviors.

In Q1 2024, the US crossed the historic milestone of paying over $1 trillion on interest payments. As a consequence of an unprecedented $5 trillion money supply boost since 2020, the US experienced an...

Yesterday’s first-quarter GDP report delivered a one-two punch for markets: slower-than-expected growth and hotter-than-expected inflation. In reaction, stocks fell and US Treasury yields rose....

The latest retail sales data suggests a robust consumer, leading economists to become even more optimistic about more robust economic growth this year. To wit: “It has been two years since...