Market Overview

Economic growth continues to defy expectations of a slowdown and recession due to continued increases in deficit spending.The U.S. Treasury recently reported the December budget deficit, which shows...

Next week’s official release of US GDP data for the fourth quarter remains on track to post a moderate increase, based on a median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by...

The stock market finished higher yesterday. It was an entertaining day, especially if you understood the background of the sudden and “unexpected” rally, especially heading into OPEX...

I am a risk manager, both literally and figuratively. Literally, since whether it is with our own funds and strategies or allocations for individual investor clients, or with my trading book back when...

The sharp drop in the New York Federal Reserve’s Empire State business-conditions index in January triggered a wave of warnings.Soon after this monthly survey data was released yesterday (Jan....

Appreciating Apollo’s graph below, comparing recent inflation to multiple bouts of inflation of the late 1960s, 70s, and early 80s is of utmost importance for investors.Sustained levels of high...

The January effect, named for the perceived market anomaly where stock returns in January are higher than in other months, has been a subject of interest since it was first written about in...

The Fed has been running QT for a while and yet there is still abundant liquidity in the financial system.Fed’s bond holdings are down $1.3 trillion from their peak (due to QT), yet only half of...

In the most recent BLS employment report, the percentage of full-time jobs relative to the population dropped sharply.The robust headline number of 216,000 led most media commentators to suggest a...

I’m changing the way I do the monthly CPI analysis. Doing it live for an audience was always stressful, especially with the inevitable data issues from time to time.Of course, as an inflation...

After a gentle disinflationary easing (Goldilocks), the bond market is hinting at an inflationary steepening of the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread.A yield curve can steepen under inflationary or...

In December, the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States rose by 3.4% year-over-year (YoY), marking the highest increase in three months, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics...

Watch below my quick take on this morning's US inflation and jobless claims report and what it means for stocks and the US dollar trades.

The December CPI report is due on Thursday at 8:30AM ET. Headline annual inflation is seen rising 3.2% and core CPI is forecast to climb 3.8%. While the rate of inflation is declining, it’s not...