Market Overview

When the yield curve flattens and eventually inverts, you worry. But it’s when a recession hits, the Fed cuts rates and the curve steepens that you become s**t scared.Yield curve...

I must say that it is discouraging how often I have to write about the Phillips Curve.The Phillips Curve is a very simple idea and a very powerful model. It simply says that when labor is in short...

Assessing US recession risk isn’t getting any easier, but when it comes to cutting through the noise, I continue to rely on combining models for the single-best tool in the toolkit. To...

The expected long-run return for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady at 6.0% annualized in March, unchanged from last month and close to its trailing performance over the past decade. The...

Asset classes made a comeback in March, led by inflation-indexed government bonds ex-US, based on a set of ETF proxies. The downside outlier: real estate shares in the US and around the world.The...

Learn 4 essential tips that can make the difference between profits and losses

After the US regional banking crisis and the forced takeover of Credit Suisse sent shockwaves through global markets, concerns over the risk of contagion rippled across the financial sector. Fears may...

Yesterday’s post reviewed the mixed signals for US recession risk based on CapitalSpectator.com’s proprietary business-cycle indexes. Today’s follow-up will take a deeper look...

Despite warning signs flashing from several indicators, the U.S. economy is expected to report moderate growth in next month’s “advance” GDP report for the first quarter, based on a...

In 1992, judge Giovanni Falcone was killed by the Sicilian mafia.Falcone and his colleague Borsellino were at forefront of major investigations that uncovered much of the mafia’s business and...

Emergency Fed support for banks is at Great Financial Crisis proportions on some measures. Deposit flight from smaller banks remains a worry to boot. It should not be, but is. That said, there is...

No banking contagion news allows rates to jump back, but we doubt more than one Fed hike can be priced by the curve. This means the 2Y hovering around a 4% yield. Euro rates have more upside on a...

The first 2 weeks of April are the hardest to trade. Find out why and tips on how to improve your chance of profits.

CryptosThe SEC has filed a lawsuit against the CEO of the largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance. For many, this event had been a long time coming since Binance had mostly closed its doors to...