Market Overview

Conviction (kan-vik-shan): noun, a strong persuasion or belief; the state of being convinced.In life, there are things that we should be convicted and committed to. For example, the love for our...

So, I suppose the good news is that policymakers have stopped pretending that prices will go back down to the pre-pandemic levels. My friend Andy Fately (@fx_poet) in his daily note today called to...

The US debt ceiling has reached its limit, causing concern among investors. Biden administration needs to find a resolution before August 18th to avoid a potential crisis. As this unfolds, US debt...

VIX has become obsolete, and institutional investors agree. The increasing use of 0DTE options has affected its ability to accurately reflect market volatility. So, the CBOE has launched the VIX1D as...

One of the most common perspectives that I have seen in the market through my investing career is the old adage that is often repeated by Larry Kudlow: “Earnings are the mother’s milk of...

Forecasts of recession seem to be flowing from all corners these days. Still, this week’s initial estimate of economic activity for the first quarter (Apr. 27) is expected to show that growth...

The most aggressive central bank tightening cycle for decades is reaching its finale. This is our definitive guide to global central banks as we enter another round of crucial meetings over the next...

We assess this year's market themes against our 2023 outlook calls. Rates remain range-bound, and curves have only steepened moderately, but rates differentials keep narrowing. We expect little...

Inflation continues to head lower, but not at the desired pace. And, as market volatility rises, investors should try and readjust their portfolios. The 60/40 portfolio is a great way to do that as it...

Straight from the playbook of Logan Roy's kids. Good for XAU/USD?

There is a lot of important economic data to look forward to at the end of this week, including the release of GDP figures on Thursday and the PCE on Friday, along with the employment cost index and...

Nowcasting the business cycle isn’t getting any easier. Despite a firehose of data and an expanding list of analytical techniques, benchmarks, and related research at researchers’...

What can breakeven inflation rates tell us about oil prices, energy stocks, and market direction? It turns out it’s a lot more than you think.Since 2021, as the impact of an economic shutdown...

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and GOP leaders unveiled a bill that, in theory, temporarily solves the debt-ceiling crisis that’s brewing. In practice, the path ahead is probably no less...