Market Overview

Bill Ackman is a billionaire and founder of the London-based Pershing Square Capital Management, known for making profitable investments. His portfolio currently focuses on companies that generate...

In yesterday’s post, I profiled my thinking on the big-picture outlook for estimating the risk associated with the debt-ceiling battle that’s brewing in Washington. To round out this...

The US Federal Reserve could soon deliver the last hike of the current cycle. While United States 10-Year yields have seen their peak already, it will need the imminent prospect of rate cuts to...

US yields are rising across the curve but T-bills are at the intersection of a better economic outlook and a debt ceiling. Sterling rates are now offering a pick-up to dollar equivalents. This makes...

The answer relies heavily, perhaps completely, on political calculations. In other words, trying to forecast how the tortured path ahead evolves is only a bit easier than trying to grab fish in a...

Markets are still waiting for the data smoking gun that proves that a recession is coming and that inflation is a problem of the past. Until then, rates should continue to rise toward the top of their...

S&P 500's market breadth is positive, signaling a bullish outlook for the index. Meanwhile, the 60/40 portfolio continues to make a comeback. Despite this, bearish sentiment continues to remain...

Hedge funds are often called fast or smart money because they are one step ahead of herd market thinking.I am blessed with the opportunity to have several of them as clients, and pick up their brains...

The Consumer Price Index eased more than expected in March, providing fresh evidence that pricing pressure has peaked and inflation remains on track to decelerate further in the months ahead. The core...

Gold prices are on the move after the US CPI data has finally eased off and printed the reading of 5% against the expectations of 5.1%. Traders have taken this news as an indicator that the Fed is...

Recession forecasts for the US continue to swirl, but the risk still looks low from the perspective of expectations for the first-quarter GDP report that’s scheduled for April 27, when the...

Despite media headlines, podcasts, and broadcasts suggesting “doom and gloom” lurks around the corner, investor bullishness has increased markedly sincetheOctober lows. This isn’t...

When the yield curve flattens and eventually inverts, you worry. But it’s when a recession hits, the Fed cuts rates and the curve steepens that you become s**t scared.Yield curve...

I must say that it is discouraging how often I have to write about the Phillips Curve.The Phillips Curve is a very simple idea and a very powerful model. It simply says that when labor is in short...