Market Overview

How does a recession happen? “Slowly and then all at once.” Economists are increasingly confident the economy will avoid a recession. Such is due to strong job and retail sales data. Even...

Now that we have our first estimate of GDP for Q3, we also have our first estimate of M2 velocity for the third quarter. Because there is an amazing amount of uninformed hypothesis out there, I...

November kicks off with a Fed rate decision but there's a lot more to watch.Here are my 6 best trading tips including what to expect for FOMC today; 1. November market volatility trends 2. S&P 500...

Morningstar estimates that as of 2022, there is nearly $3 trillion invested in target-date mutual funds. Per Morningstar: Target date strategies remain the investment vehicle of choice for retirement...

While often difficult, investing rules can help us maintain our focus and investment discipline in volatile or uncertain markets. This year, such has certainly been the case with surging interest...

If you are taking a vacation this week, you chose the wrong week. From Tuesday until Friday, there will be a massive data dump. Starting Tuesday, we get the Employment Cost Index and Home Prices.On...

Economists no longer expect a recession. Such was according to a recent WSJ survey of Wall Street economists. To wit: “In the latest quarterly survey by The Wall Street Journal, business and...

Stocks finished the day lower and were saved by a drop in rates following a solid 7-year auction. This pushed Treasury rates lower in the second half of the trading session.It allowed stocks to rally...

In January 2023 the clues appeared to be aligning in favor of an end to the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes. It was a false dawn – the Fed lifted its target rate four times in subsequent...

This will be one of those weeks with significant risks quietly lurching in the background. Again, the biggest of those risks are the Treasury auctions, which haven’t been going particularly...

Restrictive monetary conditions, from higher yields and tighter lending conditions, are the Fed’s “Waterloo.”If you don’t remember, the “Battle of Waterloo” was...

The US 10-Year Treasury yield briefly crossed above the 5% mark yesterday — the highest since 2007 — before settling at 4.98%, based on Treasury.gov data.For buy-and-hold investors, the...

Stocks experienced a turbulent day on Thursday after Fed’s Powell contributed to market volatility Investors were already grappling with rising bond yields, the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict,...

Yesterday was one of those days when Jay Powell should have passed on its latest interview session. The message was vague, and he didn’t seem to have many answers at times.What is clear to me is...