Market Overview

Economically speaking, bullish bets are mounting on a “no landing” scenario, which suggests the economy will avoid a recession entirely. As noted by Yahoo Finance last Friday: “The...

The February Fed minutes may reveal that rates have to go much higher.It will be a holiday-shortened trading week, but it will still be full of market-moving data. The Fed minutes will be released on...

Recently I was shocked after speaking with five different investors on the phone. These investors have been involved in the markets for many years, and they trade their accounts. Surprisingly, not a...

We recently discussed the recession signals from the NFIB (National Federation Of Independent Business) and the inverted yield curve. “As in 2019, we see many of the same recession signals from...

Data steepens the curves from the back endRates were pressured higher on the back of the much-better-than-expected retail sales data. A potential weather-related bounce in the data for January had...

Higher-for-Longer Narrative Hurts Bond LongsMonthly US inflation came in line with expectations in January. After hesitating, rates went resolutely higher. Given the lack of a clear signal in the CPI...

Despite coming in below the previous reading, U.S. inflation data was slightly above expectations The initial market reaction was a mixed bag However, it is likely that inflation could fall sharply...

The market correction has started. The question we have repeatedly discussed over the last several weeks is the ongoing battle between bullish technical improvements and bearish fundamentals.On...

What a difference a rally makes. So far this year, the S&P 500 is up more than 6%. Not bad considering the doom and gloom from Wall Street forecasters at the end of 2022. Recall how strategists in...

Bullish investors continue to “Fight the Fed,” hoping that a change to monetary policy will reignite the 12-year-long bull market. But, for over a decade, the “Don’t Fight The...

Our base case remains negative EPS growth and a higher unemployment rate from May/June 2023.In other words: a recession. But what if we are wrong?Labor HoardingDuring the pandemic, companies...

This year’s rebound in asset prices around the world suggests that investor sentiment is shifting to risk-on after a year of playing defense. Trying to divine the future for pricing is always...

The stock market is betting on a Goldilocks scenario. Jerome Powell doesn’t foresee a recession, instead, he forecasts a soft landing. Apollo is bettering the soft landing scenario with an...

Last week, we discussed why the more bullish technical formations were at odds with the many recession forecasts. Not surprisingly, that article generated substantial pushback from readers, pointing...