Market Overview

Higher-for-Longer Narrative Hurts Bond LongsMonthly US inflation came in line with expectations in January. After hesitating, rates went resolutely higher. Given the lack of a clear signal in the CPI...

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently stated: “You don’t have a recession when you have the lowest unemployment rate in 53 years.” Let’s HOPE she is correct. As logical...

Despite coming in below the previous reading, U.S. inflation data was slightly above expectations The initial market reaction was a mixed bag However, it is likely that inflation could fall sharply...

The market correction has started. The question we have repeatedly discussed over the last several weeks is the ongoing battle between bullish technical improvements and bearish fundamentals.On...

Sunday’s Super Bowl had a few notable “firsts,” including the first featuring two brothers on opposing teams, but it will undoubtedly be remembered as a major turning point in sports...

What a difference a rally makes. So far this year, the S&P 500 is up more than 6%. Not bad considering the doom and gloom from Wall Street forecasters at the end of 2022. Recall how strategists in...

Our base case remains negative EPS growth and a higher unemployment rate from May/June 2023.In other words: a recession. But what if we are wrong?Labor HoardingDuring the pandemic, companies...

This year’s rebound in asset prices around the world suggests that investor sentiment is shifting to risk-on after a year of playing defense. Trying to divine the future for pricing is always...

Last week, we discussed why the more bullish technical formations were at odds with the many recession forecasts. Not surprisingly, that article generated substantial pushback from readers, pointing...

The U.S. stock market rally this year continues to be led by so-called high-beta stocks, which are outperforming the broad market by a wide margin, based on a set of proxy ETFs through Monday’s...

Last week, FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) became the prevailing market narrative.As data seemed to further validate the soft landing narrative and central bankers became ‘’data...

In the following video, I explain what I believe to be the 3 most important things to know about the global macro outlook in February.

Movements of the S&P 500 since the Fed’s interest rate hike on Feb. 1 indicate that despite the late weekly selling, the index still managed to close last week with a 1.6%...

WALL STREET WAS stunned Friday morning by the strength of the jobs market. While technology company layoffs have lately hijacked the fear-mongering media’s narrative, the truth is that the...