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GLOBAL MARKETS-European shares knocked off four-year highs by Trump speech

Published 13/11/2019, 12:55
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-European shares knocked off four-year highs by Trump speech
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* Trump offers no new details on U.S.-China trade pact

* Trade war has taken toll on major economies

* European auto, bank shares tumble

(Updates throughout)

By Sujata Rao

LONDON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - European shares fell on Wednesday

from four-year highs after U.S. President Donald Trump

threatened to "substantially" increase tariffs if China failed

to agree a trade deal, and he also took a swipe at European

Union trade policies.

Wall Street was set to open weaker as well, equity futures

showed, with the S&P 500 index indicated 0.4% lower ESC1 .

The other issue weighing on sentiment is the intensifying

unrest in Hong Kong which many fear will lead to a Chinese

crackdown. That pushed Hong Kong shares 2% lower .HSI and

weighed on markets across Asia.

MSCI's index of world shares slipped 0.3% .MIWD00000PUS ,

following a 1% fall in Asian shares outside Japan. Japan's

Nikkei slipped almost 1%, moving further off last week's

13-month highs .N225 .

"The market was anticipating something more positive from

Trump, but he didn't deliver," said Justin Onuekwusi, a

portfolio manager at Legal & General Investment Management.

"In recent weeks, we saw the balance of probabilities shift

to the positive side, risks being taken off the table, but

people have realised that risk is still there," Onuekwusi said.

He's been reducing his equity allocations, he said.

Trump's speech threatened to raise tariffs on China, but he

also said a trade deal was "close", without offering details on

when or where it would be signed. He also criticised EU trade

policies before a Nov. 14 deadline to decide whether to raise

tariffs on European and Japanese carmakers.

That deadline will probably be extended, but investors

remain jittery. A pan-European equity index .STOXX fell 0.6,

coming off Tuesday's four-year highs, when optimism before

Trump's speech and better-than-expected economic indicators from

Germany boosted stocks.

An index of European auto companies .SXAP slipped 2%. Bank

shares lost 2.7% .SX7P .

Brent crude oil futures fell more than 1% LCOc1 as the

diminishing prospects for a resolution to the 16-month long

trade war suggested less future demand for energy.

Expectations for phase one of a trade deal this month have

supported stocks and riskier assets recently. Investors were led

to cut the share of cash in their portfolios to

six-and-a-half-year lows, according to Bank of America Merrill

Lynch's monthly survey of global managers.

The poll also showed growth optimism at 18-month highs.

However, lack of progress on an agreement has started to

increase doubts about whether a trade truce will happen at all.

"I'm absolutely concerned. The clock is ticking," said

Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in

Sydney. "Markets are now expecting substantial progress in the

next week or so, and if not, then confidence could crumble."

Equity futures suggest a weak session for U.S. stocks, where

the S&P 500 backed off record highs after Trump spoke. Nasdaq

and Dow Jones futures were also down 0.5% NQc1 YMc1

The S&P 500 has risen 2% this month and 23% so far in 2019

thanks to interest rate cuts, trade hopes and robust corporate

earnings -- profits at three-quarters of S&P 500 companies have

topped expectations this quarter, according to Refinitiv.

But a more prolonged standoff will revive fears for the

world economy. Oxford Economics estimates the trade war has

trimmed eight-tenths of a percentage point off U.S. growth.

Having started 2019 with 3.1% growth, the economy eased to 1.9%

in the third quarter, they noted.

Asian markets were also rattled by Trump's speech and Hong

Kong's turmoil. Onshore spot yuan CNY=CFXS fell to a low of

7.0270 per dollar at one point, the weakest since Nov. 5.

Hong Kong protesters planned to paralyse parts of the city

for a third day, with transport, schools and many businesses

closing after violence escalated across the city. Hong Kong interbank rates rose, with one-month HIBOR at its

highest since Aug. 6 HIHKD1MD= .

The standout currency performer was the New Zealand dollar

NZD=D3 m which jumped 1% after the central bank unexpectedly

left interest rates unchanged at 1%. The U.S. dollar gained 0.05% against a currency basket, just

off three-week highs .DXY . The damage to risk appetite pushed

down yields on U.S. and German safe-haven debt. Yields on

10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR fell to a six-day low around

1.87%; 10-year Bund yields were down 4 basis points to minus

0.28% DE10YT=RR .

Markets now await data that is expected to show U.S.

inflation rose in October. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome

Powell will also testify to a Congressional committee.

Hong Kong stocks have suffered during protests https://tmsnrt.rs/2MJbLuj

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(Editing by Larry King)

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