Market Overview

It was a volatile week of trading heavily influenced by hedging flows, as noted by sharp rises and declines in implied volatility measures such as the VIX. This makes grasping the underlying message...

Last week was big for macro and markets.Today’s piece is going to cover: The Fed’s dovish announcement: a sizeable tapering of their Quantitative Tightening program; A potential upcoming...

Investor psychology is one of the most significant reasons individuals consistently fall short of their investment goals. While one of the most common truisms is that “investors buy high and...

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April jobs report on Friday, revealing a cooling labor market with narrower job gains across several major industries. The report showed that the U.S....

The April job report, a significant indicator of the U.S. labor market's health, revealed a cooling trend with slower job growth.The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April job report on...

Preliminary estimates of second-quarter US GDP activity suggest output may stabilize after two straight quarters of slower growth, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by...

There is a popular meme that the government has an incentive to inflate, because the same debt is worth less in real terms at a higher price level. If inflation is high enough, then the government (it...

The Fed meetings seem to create more confusion than needed, but it is what is what it is. I know that even though I wrote yesterday that at 2:35 PM ET, it was possible that we saw the usual FOMC press...

In an op-ed for the Washington Post on November 5, 2010, Ben Bernanke did a victory lap, praising the Fed’s efforts in stemming the financial crisis. In the article, he discusses how QE and...

The S&P 500 was down about 1.6% heading into the FOMC meeting and Quarterly Refunding Announcement today. The VIX 1-Day was up 8.3 points to 18.10, which suggests much of the decline yesterday...

The value of modeling recession risk-based multiple indicators is a hardy perennial. The latest example comes by way of aggregating trends in the 50 US state economies for estimating the odds that an...

Tomorrow, markets expect the Fed to have a similar message as the previous meetings. While rate cuts are highly unlikely, a hawkish surprise from Powell could jolt markets. Watch key indicators like...

In case you missed it, a $5 trillion tax hike looms over American households and businesses in President Joe Biden’s latest budget proposal, which would include a 25% annual minimum tax on...

This will be one of the busier weeks of the year with earnings, the Fed, lots of data, and a Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement. There are many differing views on the QRA, and there is a good...