Market Overview

The value of modeling recession risk-based multiple indicators is a hardy perennial. The latest example comes by way of aggregating trends in the 50 US state economies for estimating the odds that an...

Tomorrow, markets expect the Fed to have a similar message as the previous meetings. While rate cuts are highly unlikely, a hawkish surprise from Powell could jolt markets. Watch key indicators like...

In case you missed it, a $5 trillion tax hike looms over American households and businesses in President Joe Biden’s latest budget proposal, which would include a 25% annual minimum tax on...

This will be one of the busier weeks of the year with earnings, the Fed, lots of data, and a Treasury Quarterly Refunding announcement. There are many differing views on the QRA, and there is a good...

The Biggest MYTH of Trading is that more trading equals more money.Overtrading is one of the most dangerous trading behaviors.

In Q1 2024, the US crossed the historic milestone of paying over $1 trillion on interest payments. As a consequence of an unprecedented $5 trillion money supply boost since 2020, the US experienced an...

The latest retail sales data suggests a robust consumer, leading economists to become even more optimistic about more robust economic growth this year. To wit: “It has been two years since...

GDP and PCE inflation data disappointed yesterday. This data raises the question: will it be possible to beat inflation without triggering a recession? Meanwhile, the US dollar has corrected, with...

The airline industry is gearing up for what could be a record-breaking summer travel season, if forecasts turn out to be correct. Despite challenges such as the Boeing (NYSE:BA) 737 MAX 9 grounding...

Here is a trillion (dollar) reasons why the US economy is likely to hold up until elections: between now and then, Yellen is likely to drain the Treasury General Account (TGA) and unleash a wave of...

Stocks finished flattish on the day, but we are moving into the busiest part of the week. Now that Meta’s results are out of the way, we will have GDP and PCE to finish the week off, along with...

To be successful, active investors have to watch (and create) indicators that the mainstream media do not follow.Trading is hard, requiring discipline and a strict set of rules. Today, we look at a...

The average 12-month trailing yield for the major asset classes has ticked up so far this year, based on a set of proxy ETFs through yesterday’s close (Apr. 23) vs. early...

The bad news is that the contraction in the money supply appears to be over. That’s not bad news per se (see below), but it’s bad in that the anti-inflationary work that was happening is...