Market Overview

US stocks took another hit yesterday as the carry trade unwound and the effect was felt in Japan when the Nikkei 225 plunged. Since then, the Nikkei has rebounded 10.2%, almost erasing the 12.4%...

The Sahm Rule is getting airplay, but Sahm is not what I am, it is just one non-exceptional and somewhat lagging indicator of the coming recession. “We are pointed toward recessionary...

Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low. As...

This year's biggest pivot point for the market may come today. Original Post

US real estate investment trusts led a widespread rally in July for the major asset classes. The only laggard: commodities, which fell last month. Otherwise, global markets rallied across the broad...

Not everybody is an options trader, but during an election year there is at least one binary option that most of us care quite a bit about and that’s the option on the US Presidency. There are ways...

The Fed's July policy meeting is set to be a pivotal moment for markets, with expectations of holding rates steady while signaling a potential rate cut in September. Recent data showing cooling...

The 2 day Fed meeting begins today. Here's a look at how has the US economy changed since the June Fed meeting. Does it justify a green light for a September interest rate cut by the Federal...

With favorable economic data providing officials with greater confidence that US inflation is moving steadily along the right path, we think that Wednesday’s FOMC meeting should offer a clearer hint...

So here is the thing. During a bull market or very bullish phase, indicators give the all-clear. Come on in, the water’s fine! Investors are always going to be complacent and market/economic signals...

Markets were higher on Friday, easing some of the pain inflicted throughout the week, rising by around 1%, with the S&P 500 down 83 basis points for the week. This week, it will be all about the...

The recessionistas are now forced to look to the third quarter as the earliest start date for an economic downturn in the US. The odds have been low recently that Q2 would mark the beginning of an...

Yesterday was a rough day for risk assets all around. We are currently witnessing the unwinding of the global carry trade in the Japanese yen. This development has significantly impacted volatility...

The US dollar continued to weaken against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc this morning, but it has gained against other major currencies. The euro, in particular the EUR/JPY pair, has been hit hard...