Market Overview

We are currently in the “everything market.” It doesn’t matter what you have probably invested in; it is currently increasing in value. However, it isn’t likely for the reasons you think. A recent...

The segment’s title might also read “Another Week, Status Unchanged”, as it has been for so long now. That status targets “to or through the election” [for the broad bull rally], as it has all year...

Immigration is once again making headlines (has it ever stopped?), and it's not just the sheer numbers that have people talking. Concerns about mass immigration—both legal and illegal—have dominated...

The Chinese real estate market is de-leveraging very hard. Economists estimate Chinese households have suffered $10+ trillion of wealth losses as a result. There is now a strong urge to stop the...

Between France’s increasing yields and the UK’s colossal debt-to-GDP ratio, Europe is facing difficulties financing itself. Meanwhile, SNB head bows out with a last rate cut and China unveils its...

The resonance of summer warnings that the US economy is on the precipice of recession continues to fade from the perspective of the upcoming third-quarter GDP report. The latest run of numbers...

On Tuesday, China announced a raft of policies aimed at boosting the economy and encouraging consumption. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cut its seven-day reverse repo rate from 1.7% to 1.5%. The...

An analysis of Presidential Candidate Trump’s policy proposals recently suggests that tax cuts will increase the deficit. While the raw analysis is correct, as it subtracts the potential for reduced...

Markets are highly confident that the Federal Reserve will announce another cut in interest rates at the next policy meeting on Nov. 7, two days after the election. The uncertainty is whether the cut...

Consumer confidence has been relatively depressed for the past couple of years according to the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which are based on surveys...

The odds continue to look favorable that the US will dodge an NBER-defined recession through the end of the third quarter. Q4 still looks more challenging, but that’s guesswork at this point. By...

In our recent two-part series on the yield curve (Part One  Part Two) we discussed the four predominant yield curve shifts and what they imply about economic activity and monetary...

I reviewed the spread on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) yesterday. The white bars represent yesterday’s data, and the comparison is against the 180-day historical average. The spreads are...

Last week, the Federal Reserve made a significant move by cutting its overnight lending rate by 50 basis points. This marks the first rate cut since 2020, signaling the Fed is aggressively supporting...