Market Overview

The January effect, named for the perceived market anomaly where stock returns in January are higher than in other months, has been a subject of interest since it was first written about in...

The Fed has been running QT for a while and yet there is still abundant liquidity in the financial system.Fed’s bond holdings are down $1.3 trillion from their peak (due to QT), yet only half of...

US markets will be closed today, making for another short week. This will be an option expiration week with the VIX on Wednesday and Monthly stock OPEX on Friday.This will open a window for increased...

In the most recent BLS employment report, the percentage of full-time jobs relative to the population dropped sharply.The robust headline number of 216,000 led most media commentators to suggest a...

I’m changing the way I do the monthly CPI analysis. Doing it live for an audience was always stressful, especially with the inevitable data issues from time to time.Of course, as an inflation...

After a gentle disinflationary easing (Goldilocks), the bond market is hinting at an inflationary steepening of the 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread.A yield curve can steepen under inflationary or...

Watch below my quick take on this morning's US inflation and jobless claims report and what it means for stocks and the US dollar trades.

The December CPI report is due on Thursday at 8:30AM ET. Headline annual inflation is seen rising 3.2% and core CPI is forecast to climb 3.8%. While the rate of inflation is declining, it’s not...

Market narratives have been around for ages. However, the internet and, more recently, social media allow narratives to spread much quicker. Accordingly, they have become more frequent and potent...

Stocks gapped lower, while the equal-weight and small-cap indexes didn’t recover much. The S&P 500 finished the day lower by around 15 bps.The index was able to fill the morning’s...

Much of what is thought and believed about the stock market is based upon fallacy and a lack of understanding, which was easily seen in the comments section of one of my recent articles.It seems that...

During the last week of December, I polled my Twitter followers for their outlook on the markets and the economy for 2024. The results were quite interesting, but before we look forward, we must look...

It was one of those days; as soon as I woke up, I knew it could be a long day because the VIX was up probably more than it should have been for flat futures.If it feels like Deja Vu, it is probably...

The runup in yields for most of the major asset classes has peaked, based on the trailing 1-year payout rates for a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (Jan. 5, 2024).That’s hardly...