Market Overview

Presidential elections and market corrections have a long history of companionship. Given the rampant rhetoric between the right and left, such is not surprising. Such is particularly the case over...

Economic activity remains on a path to slow in the next month’s release of first-quarter GDP data, according to the median nowcast via a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.The...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to testify in the House today (Wed., Mar. 6) and markets will be all ears on topics that offer guidance on the outlook for interest-rate cuts.The current consensus...

In 2019, the Fed cut interest rates and restarted QE despite a healthy economy. Today, inflation is higher than the Fed’s target, economic growth is above historical trends, and financial...

Stocks fell sharply yesterday, ahead of Jay Powell’s testimony today. It would be great if Powell acknowledged how much financial conditions have eased and that easing conditions could undermine...

In late 2022, I often said that while I didn’t think it would be severe I figured we would have a recession in 2023 because we had never seen an energy spike at the same time that the Fed was...

Despite a slight slowdown, the economy continues to thrive and the chances of a rate cut at the March 20 meeting stand at a minuscule 2%. In this piece, we will consider the recent statements from...

Bitcoin and gold were both top of mind at last week’s 2024 Investment U Conference in Ojai, California, which I had the privilege of presenting at. There was a rumor circulating that the Bitcoin...

In the podcast, we covered several global macro themes and investment opportunities.Macro is back, and it’s impacting markets everywhere you look. We discussed the chart above: it shows the...

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The U.S. stock market is off to its best start to a year since 2019. The rally could be tested in March amid several major market-moving events. Market focus will be on commentary from leading Fed...

So, we are back to the argument about whether we have reached a new era of permanently higher growth and earnings, and because of productivity also a permanent state of steady disinflationary...

Stocks finished the day lower but managed to hold onto support, and it seems to suggest that today we are likely to see some kind of move.Which direction is tough to say, especially with the PCE...

Recent US recession forecasts look set to fail again for the first-quarter economic profile, based on the current lineup of Q1 GDP nowcasts.Output remains on track to slow in the first three months of...