Market Overview

It’s important for investors to follow stocks and bonds. And even more important to understand the relationship between them.   Today, we highlight the past 20-years of there relationship via the...

Judging by the current numbers, the US expansion almost certainly endures. There are well-founded concerns that the tide may be turning, but that’s still a speculative call. By comparison, published...

US stocks took another hit yesterday as the carry trade unwound and the effect was felt in Japan when the Nikkei 225 plunged. Since then, the Nikkei has rebounded 10.2%, almost erasing the 12.4%...

The Sahm Rule is getting airplay, but Sahm is not what I am, it is just one non-exceptional and somewhat lagging indicator of the coming recession. “We are pointed toward recessionary...

Economist Claudia Sahm developed the “Sahm Rule,” which states that the economy is in recession when the unemployment rate’s three-month average is a half percentage point above its 12-month low. As...

This year's biggest pivot point for the market may come today. Original Post

Not everybody is an options trader, but during an election year there is at least one binary option that most of us care quite a bit about and that’s the option on the US Presidency. There are ways...

As we had expected, the BoJ raised its policy rate to 0.25% and announced the JGB purchases would be halved by 1Q26. The growth outlook was trimmed modestly for FY24 while the inflation outlook...

The 2 day Fed meeting begins today. Here's a look at how has the US economy changed since the June Fed meeting. Does it justify a green light for a September interest rate cut by the Federal...

The market is convinced that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at the Sep. 18 policy meeting. Tomorrow’s central bank announcement and press conference is still a wild card, but...

With favorable economic data providing officials with greater confidence that US inflation is moving steadily along the right path, we think that Wednesday’s FOMC meeting should offer a clearer hint...

So here is the thing. During a bull market or very bullish phase, indicators give the all-clear. Come on in, the water’s fine! Investors are always going to be complacent and market/economic signals...

Markets were higher on Friday, easing some of the pain inflicted throughout the week, rising by around 1%, with the S&P 500 down 83 basis points for the week. This week, it will be all about the...

The recessionistas are now forced to look to the third quarter as the earliest start date for an economic downturn in the US. The odds have been low recently that Q2 would mark the beginning of an...