Market Overview

If a recession in the US has started or is imminent, the threat has yet to show up in the latest run of nowcasts for third-quarter GDP. That’s no guarantee that the economy will continue expanding,...

There’s a lot of controversy over AI. The passion of those for and against its propagation is almost religious in nature, with zealots and heretics. The zealots believe that AI is a revolutionary...

Last week, before she accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Vice President Kamala Harris threw her support behind President Joe Biden’s tax proposals for 2025, which include a...

There is a very interesting case to be made for investing in the “old economy” today. Sentiment toward commodities and their producers has fallen to a degree of extreme bearishness you would expect...

The latest retail sales report seems to have given Wall Street something to cheer about. Headlines touting resilience in consumer spending increased hopes of a “soft landing” boosting the stock...

The economy isn’t always decisive in US presidential elections, except when it is. Think Herbert Hoover in 1932 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Each lost the presidency to a challenger primarily...

Volatility poked its way through the front door for a moment, but then quickly hit the road again. The growth scare over the first weekend of August feels like a memory today with stocks gaining back...

Profitable bond trading opportunities arise when your expectations about Fed policy differ from those of the market. Therefore, with the Fed seemingly embarking on a series of interest rate cuts, it...

Credit spreads remained steady yesterday, but there were notable movements elsewhere. The one-month implied correlation index, which gauges how stocks might move together, increased. At the same...

Social media has become the place where many of us spend our time, share our lives and, increasingly, get our news. An estimated 12 billion combined hours are spent every day on these platforms,...

US recession risk appeared to ease in the wake of last week’s encouraging updates for retail sales and jobless claims. Will the better-than-expected numbers delay the widely expected rate cut that...

I expect volatility to increase this week, particularly with VIX options expiring on Wednesday. The current VIX option positions suggest that the VIX may remain around the 15 level, which means the...

A lot can happen over the course of a week when it comes to the crowd’s fickle sentiment du jour on matters of recession. At this time a week ago the headlines warned that a contraction, if it hadn’t...

I was recently asked about the seemingly strong “economic growth” rate as the Federal Reserve prepares to start cutting rates. “If economic growth is so strong, as noted by the recent GDP report,...