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GLOBAL MARKETS-European stocks recover before Fed minutes, Jackson Hole gathering

Published 21/08/2019, 13:28
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-European stocks recover before Fed minutes, Jackson Hole gathering
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* Eyes on Fed minutes, Jackson Hole meeting for rate outlook

* Renault , Fiat tie-up hopes boost shares

* U.S. President Trump says he had to 'take China on'

* Euro zone periphery govt bond yields http://tmsnrt.rs/2ii2Bqr

(Updates prices, adds U.S. futures)

By Tom Arnold

LONDON, Aug 21 (Reuters) - European stocks rallied on

Wednesday as hopes for more monetary and fiscal stimulus helped

assuage worries about global recession, political turmoil in

Italy and endless trade wars.

Traders are waiting for the Federal Reserve's annual Jackson

Hole symposium later this week and a Group of Seven summit this

weekend for clues on what steps policymakers will take to boost

economic growth.

Much depends on what the Fed does with U.S. interest rates,

making markets hyper-sensitive to the minutes - due later on

Wednesday - of its last meeting.

"People are looking ahead to Jackson Hole later this week

and the message that [Fed Chairman] Jerome Powell may or may not

give us on the direction of monetary policy. That is the

highlight of the week and we are waiting with bated breath,"

said Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Aberdeen

Standard Investments.

Futures 0#FF: are fully priced for a quarter-point cut in

rates next month and cuts of more than 100 basis points by the

end of next year. FEDWATCH

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) economist Ellen Zentner advised clients to

watch for the use of the word "somewhat" when Powell describes

future policy.

"Acknowledgment that downside risks have increased with no

characterisation of 'somewhat' could be taken as confirmation

that it is likely the Fed makes a larger cut in September,"

Zentner wrote in a note.

With so much riding on the Fed, investors were cautious and

volumes subdued, but gains extended later in the session. The

Euro STOXX 600 .STOXX was up 1.1% to its highest since early

August, with Italy .FTMIB outperforming after a rout yesterday

following the resignation of Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe

Conte. Shares in Milan-listed Fiat Chrysler FCHA.MI climbed 4.0%

after Italian media reported that talks between Fiat and Renault

RENA.PA never stopped. That put the STOXX 600 Autos Index

.SXAP on track for its best day in a month. France's CAC 40

Index .FCHI was set for its best day since Aug. 8.

GEA Group G1AG.DE , a German food-processing-machinery

company, and outsourcing group Capita CPI.L gained more than

5% after Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) upgraded its rating on the stocks.

In the U.S., stock index futures pointed to a stronger

opening, with Dow e-minis 1YMcv1 up 0.65% and S&P 500 e-minis

EScv1 0.73% higher.

Upbeat earnings reports from retailers Lowe's Cos Inc

LOW.N and Target Corp (NYSE:TGT) TGT8.N reflected robust consumer

demand, helping ease some concern about slowing economic growth.

President Donald Trump showed no signs of backing down in

his tussle with China, declaring on Tuesday a confrontation was

necessary even if it hurt the U.S. economy in the short

term. Shortly afterward, the U.S. government approved an $8

billion sale of Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) LMT.N F-16 fighter jets to

Taiwan, a move sure to draw Beijing's ire and further dim

prospects for a trade deal.

Political turmoil in Italy, Britain and Hong Kong has also

heightened uncertainties.

Italian bond yields steadied after falling on Tuesday, as

Italian President Sergio Mattarella began two days of talks that

will lead either to formation of the country's 67th government

since World War Two or to early elections.

Germany sold 30-year bonds with a negative yield for the

first time at an auction on Wednesday, a milestone for a

fixed-income market where the entire curve now yields less than

zero. STIMULUS

Alarm bells started ringing last week when yields on U.S.

10-year notes fell below two-year yields for the first time

since 2007, an inversion that has preceded previous recessions.

That was enough to prompt Trump's administration to look for

ways to stimulate the U.S. economy In addition, the central banks of the euro zone, Australia

and China are all expected to further loosen monetary policy

this year. Germany is considering fiscal stimulus.

Those prospects have driven yields lower. Benchmark

U.S.10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR stood at 1.57% on

Wednesday, down from a high of 1.625% on Monday.

Currency markets were mostly subdued. The euro weakened to

$1.1097 EUR=EBS . The dollar, measured against a basket of

currencies, rose 0.1% to 98.228 .DXY . Sterling was last down 0.4% at $1.2126 GBP=D3 and 0.4%

lower versus the euro at 91.52 pence EURGBP=D3 .

In commodities markets, U.S. crude CLc1 rose 72 cents

to$56.90 per barrel. Brent LCOc1 added 1.7% to $61.07.

Spot gold XAU= was weaker at $1,498.15 an ounce.

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