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GLOBAL MARKETS-Waning ECB stimulus bets push bond yields higher

Published 10/09/2019, 10:04
Updated 10/09/2019, 10:10
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Waning ECB stimulus bets push bond yields higher
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* Global stocks subdued, U.S. futures point lower

* China factory-gate prices fall sharply in Aug

* Markets on edge before ECB meeting

* Germany kicks off 2020 budget debate amid stimulus hopes

* German 30-yr yields: https://tmsnrt.rs/2A8XP5y

By Karin Strohecker

LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Global bond yields rose on

Monday, amid growing caution over the extent to which the

European Central Bank will add stimulus to boost an ailing

economy this week and rising hopes that Berlin could loosen its

purse strings.

Germany's 30-year benchmark bond yield DE30YT=RR briefly

broke into positive territory for the first time in more than a

month, while U.S. Treasury yields US2YT=RR US10YT=RR

US30YT=RR climbed to 18-day highs.

Safe-haven assets have been caught up in the fixed income

sell-off, with gold XAU= touching a one-month trough and

Japan's yen plumbing a five-week low. But equities

.MIWD00000PUS failed to make gains, as weak Chinese producer

prices data dampened the mood.

The bond moves comes as markets are gearing up for

Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which is widely

expected to deliver a cut to interest rates and point to further

bond-buying stimulus. However, there is a growing chorus of opinion that ECB

policymakers and other central banks with negative interest

rates and sub-zero long-term sovereign bond yields are nearing

the limits of stimulus policies.

Germany also starts to debate its 2020 budget in parliament

later in the day, where Finance Minister Olaf Scholz's speech

will be scrutinised after Reuters reported Berlin was looking

into creating a "shadow budget" to boost public investment and

effectively circumvent limits set by its national debt rules.

"These stories have become more frequent in recent weeks,"

said Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid. "Whilst the market always gets

more excited by the headlines than is justified by hard evidence

of any change in policy, it's fair to conclude that market

pressure and chatter on this story is building."

Europe's largest economy is teetering on the brink of

recession, but strict national spending rules have tied

policymakers hands on fiscal policy.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is also widely expected to cut

interest rates next week as policymakers race to shield the

global economy from risks, which also include Britain's planned

exit from the European Union.

With interest rates plumbing record lows in many countries

and the effectiveness of further bond-buying muted by already

record-low borrowing costs for governments, attention has turned

to increased public spending or tax cuts to fire up growth.

A CHINESE CLOUD

The sell-off in fixed income markets failed to lift global

stocks, where the mood was subdued amid concerns over the health

of the world economy.

Data showing China's mainland factory-gate prices shrank at

their fastest pace in three years, as flagging demand at home

and abroad forced some businesses to slash prices, saw Asian

bourses slip lower. In Europe, the pan-European stocks benchmark index STOXX 600

.STOXX fell 0.4% in a second day of losses.

China-sensitive German stocks .GDAXI eased 0.3% while

France's CAC .FCHI dropped 0.6%.

"China inflation data was probably the worst combination of

prints the market could have hoped for," said Stephen Innes,

Market Strategist AXI Trader.

"While the enormous slide in China factory gate prices

reminded us of what we already know, U.S. tariffs are sinking

the Chinese economy and at a much quicker pace than anyone could

have imagined."

However, climbing bond yields helped lift European banking

stocks .SX7P 0.3% - one of the few sectors in the black.

U.S. stock futures ESc1 YMc1 NQc1 pointed to a lower

open on Wall Street after the S&P 500 .SPX ended flat in New

York on Monday. .N

In currencies, the rise in Treasury yields helped lift the

dollar to touch a five-week high of 107.50 yen JPY=EBS . The

euro EUR=EBS was flat at $1.104 after reaching an overnight

high of $1.1067.

The pound GBP=D3 traded near a six-week high of $1.2385

after a law came into force demanding that Prime Minister Boris

Johnson delay Britain's departure from the European Union unless

he can strike a divorce deal with the bloc. Oil futures hit their highest level in six weeks in Asia

after Saudi Arabia's new energy minister confirmed he would

stick with his country's policy of limiting crude output to

support prices. O/R

U.S. crude CLc1 traded at $57.97 a barrel after hitting

the highest since July 31. Brent crude futures LCOc1 climbed

to $62.67 a barrel.

Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who became Saudi Arabia's new

energy minister on Sunday, told reporters there would be "no

radical" change in Saudi's oil policy. Saudi Arabia is OPEC's de

facto leader.

German 30-yr yield https://tmsnrt.rs/2A8XP5y

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