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GLOBAL MARKETS-Here come the cavalry?

Published 03/03/2020, 12:11
Updated 03/03/2020, 12:18
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Here come the cavalry?
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* Hopes of central bank stimulus lift global shares

* ECB says stands ready to take targeted measures

* G7 conference call planned later on Tuesday

* Australia central bank cuts policy interest rate

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Marc Jones and Karin Strohecker

LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - A recovery in world stock

markets and oil prices picked up pace on Tuesday, as global

policymakers signalled a united front to address the economic

fallout from the spreading coronavirus.

Europe's main bourses surged nearly 3% in what looked set to

be the region's .STOXX best day since 2016 .FTSE .GDAXI

.FCHI .FTMIB as dealers rediscovered their appetite for risk

and jettisoned safe but low profit assets. .MIWD00000PUS .

The reason? The cavalry. Finance ministers from the G7 and

central bank governors will hold a conference call on Tuesday

(1200 GMT) to discuss measures to deal with the outbreak.

According to a source at the group, a statement it is

crafting does not detail any firm fiscal or monetary stimulus

plans, but for investors it was a reassuring signal.

"The market is very much wanting a coordinated policy

response, but the question here is whether a conventional

interest-rate response is sufficient, or whether it requires

also a fiscal response," said Sameer Goel at Deutsche Bank.

"The problem is, the severity of the problem is not very

clear."

The mild selloff in super-safe government bonds came after

yields on benchmark U.S. Treasuries hit record lows in recent

days as worries mounted about a potential global recession.

The decision to hold a G7 call came after the head of the

European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, on Monday joined the

chorus of heavyweight central bank chiefs signalling a readiness

to deal with the threat from the outbreak. Earlier messages from the U.S. Federal Reserve that it was

prepared to act continued to weigh on the dollar, having fuelled

expectations of a sizable rate cut at its meeting in two weeks.

Against the yen, the dollar lost 0.4% to 107.95 yen JPY= ,

slipping towards a five-month low of 107 set on Monday.

Lagarde's comments meant the euro was a shade lower at

$1.1111 EUR= , having hit an eight-week peak of $1.1185 in the

previous session after a string of other top ECB policymakers

said the bank was still assessing the situation.

The Australian dollar AUD=D3 , which is seen as a proxy bet

on China due to the raw materials it sells there, sat above a

recent 11-year trough largely on short covering after its

central bank cut interest rates earlier in the day. Oil prices gained another 2% after a jump of more than 4% on

Monday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 went

to $47.8 a barrel while Brent crude LCOc1 stood at $52.9.

The improved sentiment helped U.S. S&P 500 futures ESc1

climb as much as 1%. MSCI's world stocks index was up 0.6%

having scored its best day since 2011 on Monday after a roaring

Wall Street pushed it up just over 3%. .MIWD00000PUS

Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS ended 0.8%

higher, off earlier peaks but still marking the second straight

session of rises.

"Barring any further deterioration of the coronavirus

outbreak, we believe that the global cyclical recovery is likely

to gain further momentum," Schroders' Asian multi-asset team

said in a report.

"This is likely to benefit stocks with higher leverage to

global growth, as stronger earnings could support dividend

growth."

MONEY MARKETS

Japan's Nikkei .N225 lost steam and closed 1.2% lower

after short-covering ran its course and as the yen firmed on the

dollar, but South Korea's Kospi .KS11 rose 0.6%.

Australian shares .AXJO ended up 0.7% after the central

bank cut interest rates to a record low of 0.5%, the fourth

reduction in less than a year. The rout in global stocks last week had already prompted Fed

Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda

to flag a readiness to move.

"It is reasonable to expect a response that reflects a

combination of fiscal measures and central bank initiatives,"

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said on Tuesday.

Money markets are fully pricing in a cut of at least 0.25

percentage points to the current 1.50%-1.75% target rate at the

Fed's March 17-18 meeting as well as a 0.10 percentage point cut

to the ECB's minus 0.5% key rate at March 12 meeting.

The frantic moves by policymakers reflected growing fears

about the disruption to supply chains, factory output and global

travel caused by the new epidemic just as the world economy was

trying to recover from the effects of the U.S.-China trade war.

Coronavirus, which has already claimed more than 3,000

lives, now appears to be spreading much more rapidly outside

China than within the country. That leads the world into

uncharted territory, although the World Health Organization has

so far stopped short of calling it a pandemic. U.S. bond yields rolled back some of their sharp falls.

The 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield moved to 1.15% US10YT=RR

from a record low of 1.030% marked on Monday. The two-year notes

yield US2YT=RR jumped back to 0.87% from a 3 1/2-year low of

0.710%, though yields on the most rate-sensitive short term

notes continued to drop.

April Fed funds rate futures FFJ0 still price in about 80%

chance of a 0.50 percentage point cut this month and a total of

almost 1 percentage point cuts by the end of year.

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